Emerging markets’ unexpected outperformance after “liberation day”

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Financial Times 1w ago

Emerging markets’ unexpected outperformance after “liberation day” - Financial Times

Quick Summary:

By dint of luck [such as not having big car industries], or because they have low trade with the US, many EMs — particularly in Latin America — got off pretty well after “liberation day” . . . That they are really off of Trump’s radar screen is perceived as a net benefit by investors.

Trump’s tariffs also matter more for the US than they matter for most EMs; US businesses are dealing with uncertainty on all fronts, whereas EM companies and sovereigns are just contending with potentially slower growth and their changing relationship to the US and China.

Though EM outperformance could be a sign of shifting global capital flows, equity outperformance has been marginal and varied, and we still do not have the full flows data from the first half of April.